My first Non-academic, non-historical economic forecast. Now for me to do this puts risk on myself, however, that is just like all economic forecasters no one really holds them accountable for their forecasts and predictions…..so here is what I lean to and what I choose to believe.
Interest rates are at an all time low and will continue for quite some time. This will help you and I and main street. Bankers and economist have said that interest rates could not stay low very long….well they told me that in 2009 and now it is 2016. Japan has had low, 0 and negative interest rates now for 20+ years. So I now deviate from the bankers and economists. Low interest rates will continue…. GOOD
Gas prices at $1.60 a gallon. Now when did you see that in the last 10 years. I predict this will be low for quite some time. Some say this hurts our economy……but really, does it. The money goes into our, your and my personal home budgets and pockets. This helps you and I as consumers have more money to spend on other things and save money. This is good.
Side note….if you take the .60cent tax on the price the real gas price is under a buck.
There are Trillions of dollars on the side line both in the Corporate world and in the private world. Can you imagine if that type of money was released into our economy, our investment options, our industries. My goodness there is a huge avalanche of potential huge upside and I think it will come into play in the next few years and then watch out for an avalanche of economic boom. GOOD
Corporate profits from industry, manufacturing, airlines, retail, steel, computers etc. etc. etc. are reaping huge profits. Is this good. Absolutely…..creating jobs, creating construction, creating creating creating. GOOD
Unemployment is basically 0. Under 5% is essentially 0. So that is GOOD,
The US dollar is strong. I really like a strong US dollar. The Peso is Mexico is now 18.50 to 1. I don’t know much about currency and all that revolves around that but I do know I like a strong US dollar. GOOD
Car sales are at an all time high. 18 million SAAR. It has never been that high in history. The economists said that we would never see the levels of 2005 and 2006 at 17.7million. I guess they were wrong again.
Plus the US auto fleet is the oldest still and that means auto sales we continue to be good for quite some time. GOOD
GM is making Billions and paying back everyone and giving its stock holders and stake holders billions of dollars for their return. GOOD
Chrysler was dead…..so all the pundits thought. But Chrysler is doing historic business…..and stronger than ever. GOOD.
So with my little brain, reading and studying and watching and learning and based on history……which right now is not a good indicator……….I believe we are in for a strong revival of a GREAT economy. That is my take on the future.
You saw it first right here. Me, the non-academic, non-historic, noncomformist economist. GOOD….GREAT things are in store.
Have a great day with Great news.